As hard as it is predicting how any Award voting will go, predicting the Grammy Awards is even tougher, as the voting is done by folks from all genres, some knowing nothing about country music. I'm going to give it a try, and let's hope I do better than my CMA record.
Let's start with the Female Vocalist category. While you may not have really heard Emmylou Harris on the radio any time in the recent weeks, Emmylou is a very popular with the Grammy voters, having won eight Grammys in the past, three of which were in this category. However... she hasn't won anything since 1999, and hasn't won the female category since the 1980s. Faith Hill has won this award twice before. The last time was in 2002. She's also been a Grammy favorite and has a very good chance at coming home with the award. Gretchen Wilson has also won in this category in 2004. Lee Ann Womack, coming off a successful run at the CMA Awards, has never won in this category. Will the Grammy voters recall her at the CMA Awards telling how she "loves country music?" Hard to say. The last female in the category is Trisha Yearwood. She has won this award once, back in 1997. It's going to be a close call.
Who do I want to win? I'd like to see Lee Ann Womack walk away with the Grammy here.
Who will win? I think that Faith will pull off this category.
In the Male Vocalist category, we have George Jones. What says country music more than just the name George Jones? Voters unfamiliar with country music may vote for names they recognize, and I'm sure the Possum's name would be one that they do recognize. Of course, Willie Nelson is also nominated in this category, and everyone knows Willie. Then, there is Delbert McClinton, whom I'm not sure belongs in the Male Vocalist category for country music. I can't see him winning this category. Toby Keith had a big year in 2005, with a new album, and leaving Dreamworks to form his own record label. Brad Paisley has also been really visible, but anyone not totally familiar with country music may see Keith Urban is a good choice, being that he's also popular in pop, plus his recent coupling with Nicole Kidman helps his visibility.
Who do I want to win? I'd like to see Keith Urban take the Grammy.
Who will win? I think Keith Urban will take the Grammy.
In the Best Country Vocal Duo or Group, we have Big & Rich. Who hasn't heard "Comin' To Your City" played on TV constantly in the Chevy commercials. Brooks & Dunn's "Play Something Country" has also been a big hit, and they have won in this category twice before, in 1993 and 1996. The Dixie Chicks are still not being played on country radio, and that's a shame. That doesn't mean the Grammy voters will feel the same. The Chicks have long been Grammy favorites, having won in this category four times previously, including last year's win. Another huge Grammy favorite is http://countrymusic.about.com/od/awards/a/akus_gr.htm]Alison Krauss + Union Station[/link], who have won this category twice, the last time in 2001. Rascal Flatts receive their first Grammy nomination this year.
Who do I want to win? I'd like to see Rascal Flatts to win. They've had a huge year. This is their first nomination ever. The other two nominations for "Bless the Broken Road" go to the songwriters.
Who will win? The Dixie Chicks are Grammy darlings, and I think that the Grammy will mark the Chicks box on the ballot.